A Few Ike Projections For You

For those of you wondering how I am down here in the midst of hurricane season, I'd like to give you a little update. First of all, I'm fine. Even if a hurricane were to hit Houston, we're far enough inland that we would likely get flooding and a little wind, but nothing much more. Gustav came and went with little more than a few clouds, and the chances of a hurricane actually staying that far south in the gulf until it hits Houston is not very likely.

However, that sounds a lot like New Orleans before Katrina, so everyone here is still preparing just in case.

I've been tracking Ike for a few days now, and have learned a lot about hurricanes in general, but also a lot about Ike himself. Namely, that hurricanes tend to slow significantly when they hit land, such is the case with Ike and Cuba today. He's a 1 right now, which dropped from a 3 earlier today. However, they tend to pick right back up when they hit the gulf, and that's when we'll really know what we're dealing with. Until then, it's all speculation really. Odds are, it will pick up to a 3 again in the gulf, but turn to the north in the process, avoiding us. At least that's my opinion after doing some homework the last few days.

One thing to keep in mind though is there is a high pressure system moving south off of the Atlantic into the gulf right now that has the power to push Ike south. That's what most projections have in store for it right now, anyways. In that case, the odds are higher it will reach Texas.

But again, we won't know until we see what it does in the gulf, and that will come sometime later this week.

Like I said, I have been tracking it, and you can too if you'd like. There are two great, easy to understand resources I use to track the storm. Check them out below.





The first is the projected path from the National Hurricane Center. The second is a mash up of multiple projections from different organizations, including the NHC, the Navy, and others.

If you click either picture, it will take you to the updated projections. These are current as of 11:30pm central time on Monday.

So, a little interpretation, if you will. Houston is located (for these maps' purposes) right on the little inlet on the coast near the Louisiana border, if you can see that. As you can see, most projections say it's going to make landfall to the SW of us right now, which is bad for two reasons: 1) the hurricane can likely turn to the northwest anywhere in the gulf and either miss us or come right at us. 2) The east side of a hurricane is the worst side. That's the side where you get tornadoes, the fiercest winds, and most of the debris, which leads to the most damage.

Now, it's projected to hit land, wherever that may be, sometime Saturday, so there's nothing to worry about yet. Well, I wouldn't say that, but rather there are too many variables still lurking out there to assume it's going to hit Houston. Gustav was projected to hit Houston days before it made landfall, and in that time, it took a sharp turn northward and missed us completely, hitting the coast of Louisiana (Boy, do they deserve a break though, right?). That could very well happen again, but we just don't know yet.

So, keep checking those projections, and maybe head here too. That's a bunch of satellite imagery that's actually pretty cool to watch and play with.

Again, just wanted to give you a little heads up on things in case anyone had any questions. I'll keep you posted through twitter with more little tidbits I get, and hopefully talk to everyone soon.